The Closing Bell - The Spread Sheet

Dallas was an 80% favorite on Thursday night. Bucky Irving didn't care.

Tampa Bay rolled into Dallas without a win, without its starting quarterback, and with only a 20% chance of winning on Kalshi.

Irving then ran for a career-best 165 yards, found the end zone twice, and carried the Buccaneers to a 24-16 victory.

The entire Cowboys offense finished with 50 rushing yards. Irving topped that on a single 72-yard run.

Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels kept it clean, while Dak Prescott was picked off twice. Dallas turned it over three times. Tampa Bay didn't turn it over once.

This is the kind of night that makes prediction markets worth following.

Prices tell us what the crowd believes. Games remind us why the crowd doesn't get the final word.

And with the MLB playoff field shrinking and a huge college football weekend on deck, there's no shortage of markets left to price.

THE CROWD WAS RIGHT

THE BEST TEAMS ARE WINNING IN OCTOBER

The Dodgers, Brewers and Rays have all punched their tickets to the next round.

Los Angeles finished off Atlanta in four games. Milwaukee needed four to get past San Diego. Tampa Bay moved even faster, sweeping the Yankees in three.

Traders have reacted by piling championship odds onto the teams still standing.

The Dodgers now hold 43% of the World Series market. Milwaukee is at 25%, and Tampa Bay has risen to 22%.

Good teams winning isn't the story.

The story is how fast the market is shrinking its list of real title contenders.

THE VERDICT: YES.

THE CROWD BLEW IT

BUCKY IRVING AND THE 20% BUCCANEERS

Thursday was supposed to belong to Dallas.

Kalshi traders had the Cowboys at 80% before kickoff. Tampa Bay was 0-4, Baker Mayfield was hurt, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels was only making his second career start.

Then Irving took the game over.

He turned 21 carries into 165 yards, ran for one touchdown and caught another.

Final score: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16.

A 20% shot is supposed to land every so often. One upset doesn't mean the market got it wrong.

What it does show is how much uncertainty can sit underneath a number that looks like a sure thing.

THE VERDICT: NO.

OUR RECEIPTS

Monday's Opening Bell made four calls.

JEREMIAH SMITH
Trade Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman

Smith has slipped a bit from Monday's high of 48%.

That doesn't make the call a miss. It just means traders are rethinking how much faith to put in a wide receiver this early in the year.

OHIO STATE
Trade Ohio State to win the Big Ten

Ohio State's conference-title odds have ticked up.

MILWAUKEE
Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series

The Brewers moved on, but their outright price barely budged.

KANSAS CITY
Trade Kansas City to win the Super Bowl

The Chiefs are holding at 9%.

OUR RECORD: All three YES calls remain open. No outcomes have settled.

THE MOVE OF THE WEEK

THE DODGERS ARE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WORLD SERIES MARKET

29% → 43%
Trade the Dodgers to win the World Series

Over the last seven days, the Dodgers have gained 14 percentage points in the World Series market.

Los Angeles is right back where it tends to be.

On top.

Still, 43% is a hefty price for a team with two more postseason series to win.

THE TRADE: WATCH

THE WEEKEND BOARD

1. GEORGIA AT ALABAMA
Alabama: 53% | Georgia: 47%
Trade Georgia vs. Alabama

The weekend's marquee college football matchup is basically a toss-up.

One result here could redraw the national-title market overnight.

OUR CALL: WATCH

2. JEREMIAH SMITH'S NEXT HEISMAN AUDITION
Ohio State: 99% | Smith Heisman: 44%

Ohio State is a massive favorite over Maryland.

The market that matters more is Smith's.

One more big game could erase this week's dip in his Heisman odds.

OUR CALL: YES

3. SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE
Seattle: 62% | San Francisco: 38%
Trade 49ers vs. Seahawks

Seattle is the market favorite in one of Sunday's most intriguing division games.

OUR CALL: YES on Seattle

4. DODGERS VS. BREWERS
Los Angeles: 59% | Milwaukee: 41%
Trade the NLCS winner

Traders trust the Dodgers.

Milwaukee owns the better regular-season record and a real underdog price.

OUR CALL: WATCH Milwaukee at 41%

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