--- title: "The Closing Bell - The Spread Sheet" url: https://stacklist.com/card/c1fc10e4-778c-4c4b-a96e-cdb110304b81 published: 2026-10-14T15:18:24.227Z stack: https://stacklist.com/stack/ad0175a0-f555-4e0e-9b53-a9271a7f3ebb summary: "The Closing Bell analyzes prediction market movements across sports, highlighting how Tampa Bay's upset victory over Dallas as a 20% underdog demonstrates the uncertainty beneath seemingly confident market prices. The piece also tracks World Series odds, college football matchups, and Heisman Trophy predictions as key markets shift following playoff outcomes." tags: "sports-betting, prediction-markets, nfl, mlb, college-football, market-analysis" key_entities: "Bucky Irving (person), Dak Prescott (person), Jalon Daniels (person), Baker Mayfield (person), Jeremiah Smith (person), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (organization), Dallas Cowboys (organization), Los Angeles Dodgers (organization), Milwaukee Brewers (organization), Ohio State (organization), Kansas City Chiefs (organization), Kalshi (organization), Dallas (location), Tampa Bay (location), Los Angeles (location), Georgia (location), Alabama (location), World Series (event), Heisman Trophy (event), Big Ten Championship (event), Super Bowl (event), prediction-markets (concept)" classification: "analysis" content_hash: "sha256:d890db890b0e97bf6232c5f2d49c30182df3790a2e5155aa8372c98f3809ab76" acp_version: "0.2" token_counts_approximate: 1144 visibility: public agent_accessible: true status: "final" --- # The Closing Bell - The Spread Sheet ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!0-42!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fe05112e0-05e3-4455-b18a-3e6d73db9f41_1600x900.png) **Dallas was an 80% favorite on Thursday night. Bucky Irving didn't care.** Tampa Bay rolled into Dallas without a win, without its starting quarterback, and with only a 20% chance of winning on Kalshi. Irving then ran for a career-best 165 yards, found the end zone twice, and carried the Buccaneers to a 24-16 victory. The entire Cowboys offense finished with 50 rushing yards. Irving topped that on a single 72-yard run. Rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels kept it clean, while Dak Prescott was picked off twice. Dallas turned it over three times. Tampa Bay didn't turn it over once. This is the kind of night that makes prediction markets worth following. Prices tell us what the crowd believes. Games remind us why the crowd doesn't get the final word. And with the MLB playoff field shrinking and a huge college football weekend on deck, there's no shortage of markets left to price. **THE CROWD WAS RIGHT** **THE BEST TEAMS ARE WINNING IN OCTOBER** The Dodgers, Brewers and Rays have all punched their tickets to the next round. Los Angeles finished off Atlanta in four games. Milwaukee needed four to get past San Diego. Tampa Bay moved even faster, sweeping the Yankees in three. Traders have reacted by piling championship odds onto the teams still standing. The Dodgers now hold 43% of the World Series market. Milwaukee is at 25%, and Tampa Bay has risen to 22%. Good teams winning isn't the story. The story is how fast the market is shrinking its list of real title contenders. **THE VERDICT: YES.** **THE CROWD BLEW IT** **BUCKY IRVING AND THE 20% BUCCANEERS** Thursday was supposed to belong to Dallas. Kalshi traders had the Cowboys at 80% before kickoff. Tampa Bay was 0-4, Baker Mayfield was hurt, and undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels was only making his second career start. Then Irving took the game over. He turned 21 carries into 165 yards, ran for one touchdown and caught another. Final score: Buccaneers 24, Cowboys 16. A 20% shot is supposed to land every so often. One upset doesn't mean the market got it wrong. What it does show is how much uncertainty can sit underneath a number that looks like a sure thing. **THE VERDICT: NO.** **OUR RECEIPTS** Monday's Opening Bell made four calls. **JEREMIAH SMITH** Trade Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman Smith has slipped a bit from Monday's high of 48%. That doesn't make the call a miss. It just means traders are rethinking how much faith to put in a wide receiver this early in the year. **OHIO STATE** Trade Ohio State to win the Big Ten Ohio State's conference-title odds have ticked up. **MILWAUKEE** Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series The Brewers moved on, but their outright price barely budged. **KANSAS CITY** Trade Kansas City to win the Super Bowl The Chiefs are holding at 9%. **OUR RECORD:** All three YES calls remain open. No outcomes have settled. **THE MOVE OF THE WEEK** **THE DODGERS ARE TAKING CONTROL OF THE WORLD SERIES MARKET** 29% → 43% Trade the Dodgers to win the World Series Over the last seven days, the Dodgers have gained 14 percentage points in the World Series market. Los Angeles is right back where it tends to be. On top. Still, 43% is a hefty price for a team with two more postseason series to win. **THE TRADE: WATCH** **THE WEEKEND BOARD** **1\. GEORGIA AT ALABAMA** Alabama: 53% | Georgia: 47% Trade Georgia vs. Alabama The weekend's marquee college football matchup is basically a toss-up. One result here could redraw the national-title market overnight. **OUR CALL: WATCH** **2\. JEREMIAH SMITH'S NEXT HEISMAN AUDITION** Ohio State: 99% | Smith Heisman: 44% Ohio State is a massive favorite over Maryland. The market that matters more is Smith's. One more big game could erase this week's dip in his Heisman odds. **OUR CALL: YES** **3\. SAN FRANCISCO AT SEATTLE** Seattle: 62% | San Francisco: 38% Trade 49ers vs. Seahawks Seattle is the market favorite in one of Sunday's most intriguing division games. **OUR CALL: YES on Seattle** **4\. DODGERS VS. BREWERS** Los Angeles: 59% | Milwaukee: 41% Trade the NLCS winner Traders trust the Dodgers. Milwaukee owns the better regular-season record and a real underdog price. **OUR CALL: WATCH Milwaukee at 41%** --- More about the Spread Sheet below: https://stacklist.com/the-spreadsheet-show