The Opening Bell - The Spread Sheet

Baseball didn’t finalize its postseason field until the last afternoon of the regular season yesterday. Philadelphia won Game 162 to grab the final National League wild card and send Arizona home. Houston locked up the AL West once Texas fell to Minnesota, making the Astros an 81-81 division champion and, according to CBS Sports, the first team to win a division in a 162-game season without a winning record. Tampa Bay (98-64) fended off the Yankees for the American League’s top seed, while Cleveland (85-77) won the AL Central and claimed the other bye. Over in the National League, Milwaukee’s 103-59 mark secured the No. 1 seed. Los Angeles (100-62) slots in at No. 2 and is going after the sport’s first three-peat since the Yankees did it from 2000 to 2002.

Wild card play gets going tomorrow, and the headliner is Red Sox at Yankees, a best-of-three set with first pitch at 8 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock. Boston sat 14 games below .500 in late June and was trading near 100-to-1 to win the World Series in early July. Now the Red Sox have a shot at eliminating the Yankees in the Bronx, and they’re somewhere between 14-1 and 16-1 depending on where you look. The remaining matchups are White Sox at Astros, Phillies at Braves and Cubs at Padres. Chicago made it in after three consecutive 100-loss seasons, and San Diego finished on a 43-23 second-half tear. The World Series market still runs through the Dodgers, who sit at +200 to +230 at most books, with Milwaukee around +500 to +600 and Tampa Bay at +750.

Football outpaced baseball this weekend, though. NFL Week 3 and college football Week 4 both shook up the title boards, so we’ve got a pick for each. To the board.

TRADE 1: 2027 NFL Champion

As of late last week, Kalshi had Buffalo at 13 cents and the Rams at 12. Then Los Angeles took a 16-0 halftime lead over Denver on Sunday night and lost 30-26, as Bo Nix led a 30-point second-half rally. Matthew Stafford put up 403 yards and two touchdowns, but he also threw a 66-yard pick-six that handed Denver the lead, and the Rams have dropped to 1-2. Myles Garrett has been on injured reserve since September 17 following arthroscopic knee surgery, and Puka Nacua is dealing with a hip issue. Both are said to be returning soon. The sportsbooks have barely budged. DraftKings still lists the Rams at +650 this morning, with the Bills at +700.

Buffalo is 3-0 after a 24-16 win over the Chargers, Josh Allen leads the MVP race, and the Bills are priced almost exactly like a team that just coughed up a 16-point lead. Baltimore (+900) climbed back to 2-1 with a 34-31 win over Dallas in Rio. Our pick: Buffalo.

TRADE 2: NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion

Georgia has taken over the top spot on Polymarket at 16%. Ohio State follows at 14%, with Notre Dame and Texas at 13%, Miami at 10%, Indiana at 8% and LSU at 6%. Georgia climbed to No. 1 by routing Oklahoma 41-13 behind a 21-point second quarter, one week after a 45-17 win at Arkansas. Texas lost ground despite winning, squeaking out a 20-17 finish at Tennessee. Ohio State handled Illinois 42-19 but still has the Texas loss on its résumé. Notre Dame rolled Purdue 49-10. Indiana, favored by 21 on Friday night, got past Northwestern just 29-23.

Ole Miss took the hardest fall. The Rebels came in at No. 4 and lost 52-28 at Florida without running back Kewan Lacy, and they’re now trading near 2%. Florida is at roughly 3%. Oregon (5%) has a quarterback situation to sort out after Dante Moore exited the USC game following a collision and Dylan Raiola closed out a 41-27 win. Our pick: Georgia. If you’d rather have value than the favorite, Ohio State at 14% has the cleanest path, because a one-loss Big Ten team with Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith still has plenty of runway in a 12-team field.

That’s the bell. Have a great week.

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