The $7 Crunchwrap, Baltimore's Hope and Grief, and a Magazine Cover: Ryan Sickler Checks America's P

This week Noah brings in Ryan Sickler to take the pulse of the American experience, and they start with a painful fact: a Crunchwrap Supreme now costs almost seven dollars, and there's a federally regulated financial contract tracking exactly how much worse it gets.

The value menu used to be the last honest deal in America. It's been quietly reengineered into a smaller product with a loyalty app attached. Every chain runs the same playbook now: shrinking portions, dynamic pricing, and the same beige interior with a kiosk where a person used to stand. Take any exit off any highway and you'll find the identical, sanitized version of the same meal, at a price nobody would call a value.

From there, the episode moves to two Baltimore sports markets that split the difference between hope and grief, and it closes with why Bad Bunny is going to be People's Sexiest Man Alive.

In This Episode

What will a Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme cost in July 2026?

Kalshi runs a live contract asking whether the average U.S. price of a Crunchwrap Supreme in July will hit at least $6.67. Right now the going rate sits right on the edge at around $6.49, with menu prices this year ranging from roughly $5.84 to $6.89 depending on where you live.

It's a thin market, with barely a few hundred dollars in daily volume. But the fact that a federally regulated exchange is running it at all is the real story. Kalshi listing consumer price contracts shows prediction markets moving into territory that used to belong to CPI reports and cable news chyrons. Inflation used to be a number an economist announced on TV. Now it's a tortilla you can short.

The question for Ryan: will the price clear $6.69 by the end of July?

See the market: Taco Bell Crunchwrap Supreme price in July 2026

Who will win NFL MVP?

Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are dead even as co-favorites at 11 percent each on Kalshi, while Allen holds a 3-point lead on Polymarket.

The history is what makes this one interesting. Lamar has gone into each of the last three seasons as the market favorite, and last year he lost to Allen despite putting together a top-three statistical campaign. The case against him this time is voter fatigue. A "first-time winner in a big market" story tends to beat "a third MVP for a Raven."

Baltimore is also breaking in a new coaching staff under head coach Jesse Minter. That said, new offensive coordinator Declan Doyle was reportedly hired with Jackson specifically in mind.

The market says it's a coin flip. History says voters like to find someone new. Does Lamar get another one?

See the market: NFL MVP

Will the Orioles make the playoffs?

This is the pain trade. Baltimore sits fourth in the AL East, trading at roughly 23 percent on the playoff qualifiers market, which is the market's polite way of saying the season is over without actually saying it.

It's the emotional opposite of the Lamar segment. Same city, same fanbase, completely different mood. One trade is hope with a price on it, the other is grief with a price on it, and both will be settled by winter.

Is there a second-half run left in this team, or is 23 percent being generous?

See the market: Will the Orioles make the playoffs?

Who will be People's Sexiest Man Alive in 2026?

The closer is the only market on the board decided by a magazine editor rather than a scoreboard. Bad Bunny leads the conversation after a year that put him at the center of American pop culture.

What makes this contract unique is how it resolves. It isn't a competition. It's an editorial meeting, and no model can forecast that. Every other market in this episode settles on a receipt, a stat line or a standings page. This one settles on vibes and a cover shoot.

Does Bad Bunny take the crown?

See the market: People Magazine Sexiest Man 2026?

Trade the Markets

Every market from this episode is live, and the links are above. Odds move quickly, so the numbers you hear on the show may look different by the time you click through.

About The Spread Sheet

The Spread Sheet is your comedic guide to what's trending on prediction markets, hosted by Noah Gardenswartz. Every week, Noah and a guest take on the questions the markets are actually pricing across sports, pop culture, power and tech, and make the call. We explain them, we make fun of them, and then we deliver the verdict: YES or NO.

Follow

• Web: spreadsheetshow.com
• X: x.com/spreadsheetshow
• Instagram: instagram.com/spreadsheetshow
• TikTok: tiktok.com/@spreadsheetshow
• YouTube: youtube.com/@spreadsheetshow

Disclosures

This is not financial advice. Prediction markets are discussed for entertainment and editorial purposes only. Trade at your own risk and verify all odds independently.