Engagement Rings, Trillion-Dollar Thrones and the End of the World: Michael Yo Takes On the Markets

Episode 4: Michael Yo on Celebrity Engagements, Trillion-Dollar Companies, and Whether the World Makes It to 2027

Michael Yo just got back from South Korea, and he came into the studio ready to move fast. That works out, because this episode covers a lot of ground. Noah and Michael start with whether Timothée Chalamet survives dating a Kardashian, then move to which film racks up the most Oscar nominations, which company ends the year sitting on top of the world, whether 2026 manages to pass without anything truly bad happening, and whether the Miami Hurricanes can finally turn years of promise into a national championship.

The format stays the same as always. Every segment builds to one moment: a straight Yes or No. No hedging, no "it depends," just a call you can hold someone to later.

In This Episode

Will Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet get engaged in 2026?

The episode opens on the celebrity engagement watch of the year. Right now the market puts it at 23 percent. That's down from a February high of 59 percent, and the drop is the funniest part of the whole thing.

Nothing has actually gone wrong, at least not publicly. If anything, the two have been spotted together more often, not less. Kylie was recently seen getting ready mid-flight on a private jet for a last-minute date night in New York, which is about as committed as a commute gets. And yet the market keeps sliding.

What happened is a classic crowd mood swing. Back in February, traders fell hard for the idea of a proposal and bid it up. Since then, with no ring and no announcement, they've been slowly talking themselves out of it, one small sell order at a time. So Noah and Michael land on the two questions that matter: does an engagement happen this year, and does Timmy make it out of the Kardashian universe in one piece?

See the market: Kylie Jenner and Timothée Chalamet engaged in 2026?

Which film gets the most Oscar nominations?

On the surface, this is a market about which movie leads the nominations board at the 99th Academy Awards. Underneath, it's really a market on Hollywood's favorite indoor sport: the For Your Consideration campaign.

Anyone who has followed awards season knows that the nominations don't come down to quality alone. There are screenings, ad buys, carefully timed press runs and a lot of money spent convincing voters which film deserves their attention. That's the debate Michael and Noah dig into. Do the trophies follow the movie, or do they follow the marketing budget?

As always, it ends with a Yes or No on the current frontrunner.

See the market: Most Academy Award nominations in 2026?

Which company will be the most valuable at the end of 2026?

NVIDIA comes into this one as the runaway favorite. Its market cap has climbed past $5 trillion for the first time, making it the most valuable public company in the world, powered by record demand for its AI chips.

But the more interesting story sits right below the top spot. SpaceX ran an IPO roadshow aiming for a $1.75 trillion valuation. Alphabet briefly crossed $4 trillion. Apple keeps hitting all-time highs on the back of AI-driven optimism. Every one of those companies has a real case to be in the conversation, and none of them is standing still.

So while NVIDIA's crown looks safe for now, the real action is the race for second place, and that's where traders are moving their money. Noah puts the question to Michael: which company finishes the year on top, and why?

See the market: The most valuable company at the end of 2026?

Does nothing ever happen in 2026?

This might be the most philosophical contract on the whole platform. The question is whether the year goes by without a genuine catastrophe from a long list of doomsday scenarios.

The structure is what makes it fascinating. Buying Yes is a bet that humanity gets a quiet year and the list stays untouched. Buying No is a bet that at least one thing on that list goes wrong before the calendar flips. It's a market where you're essentially pricing your own optimism about the state of the world.

Michael gives his read on which side he's on: is he long on civilization, or bracing for impact?

See the market: Nothing ever happens in 2026?

Who wins the 2027 college football national championship?

The closer is the one Michael actually has skin in, emotionally at least. The Miami Hurricanes have spent about two decades hearing "this is the year," and their fans have spent about two decades being let down by it.

So the question is simple, even if the answer never has been. Can the Canes finally convert all that promise into an actual title? And if Miami can't get it done, who will? The episode wraps with a Yes or No on Miami.

See the market: College football 2027 champion?

Trade the Markets

Every question in this episode is a live market, and the links are above. Keep in mind that odds move quickly, so the numbers you hear on the show may look different by the time you click through.

About The Spread Sheet

The Spread Sheet is a comedy show built around prediction markets. Every week, Noah Gardenswartz and a comedian guest pull topics straight from the markets, talk them through, and commit to a Yes or No. New episodes drop weekly.