---
title: "More Extreme Erosion Projected for Oahu's Shores (University of Hawaii)"
url: https://stacklist.com/card/9720e395-fe4e-43c3-9a34-242c9589fca1
source_url: "https://www.hawaii.edu/news/2025/04/14/more-extreme-erosion-projected/"
stack: https://stacklist.com/c/places/stack/cc9c0307-da43-48d0-bb96-d5349538cef6
summary: "New research from the Coastal Research Collaborative at the University of Hawaii at Manoa finds that 81% of Oahu's coastline could experience erosion by 2100, with 40% of that loss occurring by 2030. The study, published in Scientific Reports, uses 30 years of satellite imagery and seasonal sand movement modeling to produce erosion forecasts 44% more severe than previous estimates."
tags: "coastal-erosion, sea-level-rise, shoreline, hawaii, climate-change, geospatial-modeling, beach-loss"
key_entities: "Richelle Moskvichev (person), Chip Fletcher (person), Coastal Research Collaborative (organization), University of Hawaii at Manoa (organization), School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (organization), Oahu (location), Hawaii (location), coastal erosion (concept), sea level rise (concept), geospatial modeling (technology), Scientific Reports publication (event)"
classification: "analysis"
content_hash: "sha256:0361150c4de797a1ada7e61b0a9525a897abb6703c8b9ef5088c522f09edb957"
acp_version: "0.2"
token_counts_approximate: 890
visibility: public
agent_accessible: true
status: "final"
---

# More Extreme Erosion Projected for Oahu's Shores (University of Hawaii)

April 14, 2025 UH News Reading time: 2 minutes Forecasted vegetation line with various amounts of sea level rise. (Image credit: Moskvichev, et al. 2025) Oʻahu ’s sandy beaches are at risk. New research from the Coastal Research Collaborative ( CRC ) at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa determined that 81% of Oʻahu ’s coastline could experience erosion by 2100, with 40% of this loss happening by 2030. These forecasts of shoreline erosion are more extreme than previous studies indicated for Oʻahu . The study was published in Scientific Reports . A residence with a small sandy beach flanked with temporary hardening structures. (Photo credit: S. Habel) “Our findings reiterate the already observed threat of coastal erosion as a hazard to sea level rise in Hawaiʻi ,” said Richelle Moskvichev, geospatial modeler at CRC in the UH Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology ( SOEST ) and lead author of the study. “In rapidly eroding areas, communities may see damage to roads, homes or underground infrastructure. Shorelines along the north shore and east side of Oʻahu that are backed with hard-armoring, such as seawalls, could experience total beach loss.” Creating erosion predictions To create erosion predictions, the team of researchers used a computer model that incorporates about 30 years of satellite imagery, as well as aerial and drone imagery. The new model also directly accounts for the seasonal movement of sand. For example, when large swells arrive in the winter on Oʻahu ’s north shore, sand is transported from one part of the beach to another. Given prior modeling efforts, the team’s own survey observations and anecdotal evidence from residents, the researchers expected to see erosion predicted for many sandy beaches around Oʻahu . “By including additional satellite data and seasonal modeling, our forecasts show that erosion will increase by nearly 44% above our previous estimates in the short-term, meaning that we anticipate more severe erosion sooner,” said Moskvichev. Coastal erosion can limit beach access, damage fragile ecosystems and infrastructure, and destroy homes. “This study provides an update on potential areas of shoreline change around Oʻahu , and can inform long-term development planning for coastal communities and infrastructure of the island,” said Chip Fletcher, interim dean of SOEST , director of CRC , and senior author of the study. “This UH -led research provides science-backed data to those who create local adaptation strategies, and ultimately to those most affected by the forecasted hazards. With improved forecasting for erosion hazard zones around the coast, communities, planners and policymakers can create targeted mitigation and adaptation efforts.” The research team plans to expand their modeling efforts to the other Hawaiian Islands so that similar predictions are accessible to planners and communities on all islands. Additionally, they plan to use the results in conjunction with other hazard predictions, such as flooding and groundwater inundation, to analyze overlapping locations and timing of risk to communities. Related Posts: UH Earth scientists author children’s book, support… $2.4M to bolster Waiʻanae coast’s climate resilience Federal funding cuts threaten safety, resilience of… coastal erosion Manoa Excellence in Research Manoa research publication School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology UH Manoa Share This