--- title: "The Opening Bell | The Spread Sheet" url: https://stacklist.com/card/58ccc0aa-bbe9-43ed-8076-0d1d0134e68f published: 2026-10-14T14:15:47.543Z stack: https://stacklist.com/stack/ad0175a0-f555-4e0e-9b53-a9271a7f3ebb summary: "Drake Maye's five-touchdown performance lifted the Patriots' playoff odds to 71%, a 10-point jump, while Jeremiah Smith maintains a 55% Heisman Trophy probability after two more touchdown catches. The article analyzes key sports betting markets including the Brewers' World Series chances and upcoming NFL and college football matchups." tags: "sports-betting, nfl, college-football, market-analysis, heisman-trophy, playoffs, trading" key_entities: "Drake Maye (person), Jeremiah Smith (person), New England Patriots (organization), Las Vegas Raiders (organization), Ohio State (organization), Buffalo Bills (organization), Los Angeles Rams (organization), Milwaukee Brewers (organization), Indiana Hoosiers (organization), Darian Mensah (person), CJ Carr (person), Heisman Trophy (event), NLCS (event), World Series (event), Foxborough (location), Columbus (location)" classification: "analysis" content_hash: "sha256:5d8c2de9ac038053537ebd3ba197286ed8b979f4861a538e6d4c883f49d22582" acp_version: "0.2" token_counts_approximate: 2100 visibility: public agent_accessible: true status: "final" --- # The Opening Bell | The Spread Sheet ![](https://ucarecdn.com/62c52477-73fc-4f9e-84b7-00ae9ae3b2d5/) ## **Drake Maye just put up five touchdowns. The markets noticed.** Sunday belonged to the Patriots quarterback. Maye threw for 374 yards and four scores, ran in a fifth, and steered New England to a 45-17 rout of the Las Vegas Raiders. That makes two strong outings in a row, and it’s starting to look like the version of Maye who finished as an MVP finalist a year ago is back. New England has stacked back-to-back wins, one of them over Buffalo, and traders are adjusting. The Patriots’ playoff odds now sit at 71%, a 10-point jump. Their shot at the AFC East title has climbed to 35%. Not bad for a team sitting at 1-2 only two weeks ago. Around the rest of the board, Jeremiah Smith keeps pulling away in the Heisman race, the Brewers grabbed Game 1 of the NLCS, and Buffalo heads into a big Monday night test against the Rams. Here’s what the numbers are saying this week. ## **THE BOARD** Five markets to keep an eye on to start the week. **NEW ENGLAND MAKES THE PLAYOFFS** 71% | Up 10 points A winning record again, and the market is pricing it in. **JEREMIAH SMITH WINS THE HEISMAN** 55% | Up 8 points on the latest market move Two more touchdowns keep the Ohio State receiver firmly in front. **MILWAUKEE WINS THE WORLD SERIES** 34% | Up from 25% in Friday’s edition One NLCS win has the Brewers nearly level with Los Angeles. **RAMS BEAT THE BILLS** 61% | Buffalo 39% Stafford hosts Allen on Monday night, and the Rams get the edge at home. **OHIO STATE BEATS INDIANA** 61% | Indiana 39% Ohio State’s recent blowouts make this look easier than the market thinks it is. Market prices are Monday morning snapshots and will change as trading continues. Kalshi ## **THE BIG TRADE** **YES: NEW ENGLAND TO MAKE THE PLAYOFFS** Market: 71% Trade New England to make the playoffs Fourteen days ago, the Patriots were a team trying to diagnose its own problems. Today, they look like a team that might matter in January. The reason is Drake Maye. Against the Raiders, he went 26 of 34 for 374 yards and four touchdowns, with no picks. He added a three-yard rushing score for good measure. The offense piled up 536 yards and topped eight yards per play. Las Vegas had no answers. The five-touchdown day came right after a three-touchdown passing effort against Buffalo, which puts Maye at eight passing scores across his last two starts. New England has put 79 points on the board in that span. Reuters Two wins alone wouldn’t move a market like this. What’s moving it is the idea that the Patriots’ offense may have finally clicked. That said, there’s reason to pump the brakes. New England is only 3-2. Injuries have hit the offensive line, and depth in the secondary is still a concern. The AFC is also crowded with teams that could get to 11 wins or more. The schedule, though, works in their favor. The Jets come to Foxborough next Sunday, followed by road trips to Chicago and Miami. Traders currently have New England at 75% to beat New York. Kalshi At 71%, you’re not getting a bargain on the playoff market. But if Maye keeps playing at anything close to this level, that number has plenty of room to climb before November. **THE TRADE: YES** ## **THREE TRADES** **1\. YES: JEREMIAH SMITH TO WIN THE HEISMAN** Market: 55% Trade Jeremiah Smith to win the Heisman Smith didn’t need a monster 200-yard game this week to stay on top of the Heisman race. A pair of touchdowns did the job. Ohio State handled Maryland 45-16 on Saturday, and Smith hauled in two first-half touchdown catches as the Buckeyes ran away from the Terrapins. He’s now up to roughly 55% to win the award. Miami quarterback Darian Mensah trails at 12%, with Notre Dame’s CJ Carr at 7%. At this point, the market sees the trophy as Smith’s to lose. Testudo Times For a wide receiver in October, that’s rare territory. Saturday brings the real test. Undefeated Indiana visits Columbus in one of the biggest Big Ten matchups of the year. Ohio State is the favorite, but only at 61%. Smith’s case has been built on showing up in big moments against tougher and tougher opponents. Indiana is the next chance to add to it. **THE TRADE: YES** **2\. YES: MILWAUKEE TO WIN THE WORLD SERIES** Market: 34% Trade Milwaukee to win the World Series Los Angeles came into the NLCS as the team to beat. Milwaukee didn’t seem to care. The Brewers edged the Dodgers 2-1 in Game 1 on Sunday night, powered by a Brice Turang solo homer, an RBI single from rookie Luis Lara, and yet another strong night from the bullpen. Brewers pitching kept Los Angeles off the board for the final seven innings. The relievers alone covered 4⅔ of those scoreless frames. Reuters Traders took notice. Milwaukee is now around 34% to win it all, essentially even with the Dodgers. On Friday, Los Angeles had a clear lead in that same market. The Brewers posted 103 regular-season wins, more than any team in baseball. Three more wins and they’re in the World Series. The Dodgers bring the star power and the championship history. Milwaukee brings home field, an elite pitching staff, and a 1-0 series lead. **THE TRADE: YES** **3\. YES: BUFFALO TO BEAT LOS ANGELES** Market: Buffalo 39% | Rams 61% Trade Buffalo vs. Los Angeles Monday Night Football puts two of the league’s marquee quarterbacks on the same field. Josh Allen versus Matthew Stafford. Traders have the Rams at 61%, giving Buffalo a 39% chance on the road. That’s a real markdown for a team many picked as an AFC frontrunner before the season. The Bills are coming off the loss to New England, and Los Angeles has had extra time to get ready. Still, Allen is as dangerous as anyone in the sport, especially when Buffalo needs him to carry the offense himself. The bigger question is whether the market has overcorrected after one loss. At 39%, the Bills are expected to win this game about four out of every ten times. That seems like a fair spot to bet against the crowd. ## **DRAKE MAYE’S MVP PROBABILITY** New England is 71% to make the playoffs. Drake Maye is around 6% to win NFL MVP. Those numbers can both be right. But they’re worth tracking side by side. Maye was the MVP runner-up last season. He’s now strung together two standout games, capped by Sunday’s five-touchdown performance. If the Patriots keep winning and Maye keeps producing like this, his MVP price could move a lot faster than his team’s playoff odds. It’s still early. Brock Purdy, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and a handful of other quarterbacks have stronger cases right now. But it’s a good reminder that the market prices team results and individual awards on separate tracks. ## **OUR CALL: WATCH MAYE’S MVP MARKET.** The next two weeks should tell us whether he’s a real contender or just riding a hot streak. ## **THE WATCHLIST** **MONDAY: BILLS AT RAMS** 8:15 PM ET The Rams are 61% favorites. A Buffalo win would boost the Bills’ standing in the AFC and might also reshape how traders read New England’s win over them. **MONDAY: DODGERS AT BREWERS** 5:00 PM ET Milwaukee is up 1-0 in the NLCS. Win again, and the Brewers put Los Angeles in a tough spot before the series shifts west. **MONDAY: GUARDIANS AT RAYS** 8:00 PM ET The ALCS gets underway in Tampa Bay. The Rays hold roughly 62% of the AL pennant market, with Cleveland around 39%. Whoever advances will meet Milwaukee or Los Angeles in the World Series. Kalshi **SATURDAY: INDIANA AT OHIO STATE** Noon ET Trade Ohio State vs. Indiana The Buckeyes are 61% favorites. For Jeremiah Smith, it’s another shot to widen his Heisman lead. For Indiana, it’s a chance to prove it belongs in the national title conversation. **SUNDAY: JETS AT PATRIOTS** 1:00 PM ET New England is favored at roughly 75%. A win puts the Patriots at 4-2 and hands Drake Maye a third straight chance to build his MVP case. ## **ONE NUMBER** **71%** That’s where New England’s playoff odds stand today. Two weeks ago, this team was looking for answers. Now it’s one of the most intriguing teams in the AFC. The market has already shifted. The real question is whether it has shifted far enough. We’ll track every call and settle up on Friday. The bell is open. --- More about the Spread Sheet below: https://stacklist.com/the-spreadsheet-show