--- title: "Spies, Soccer and a Market Built on One Man's Temper: Caitlin Peluffo Joins The Spread Sheet" url: https://stacklist.com/card/50266475-06a2-4018-9a7e-2756267623f7 published: 2026-06-11T00:00:00.000Z stack: https://stacklist.com/c/podcast/stack/596dff37-3625-4760-9c75-4f97119a3b87 summary: "Caitlin Peluffo joins The Spread Sheet to discuss prediction markets covering corporate espionage between Polymarket and Kalshi, the World Cup, NBA Finals MVP race, and other viral topics. The episode explores how traders price major sporting events and corporate rivalries in the prediction market ecosystem." tags: "prediction-markets, sports-betting, comedy, nba-finals, world-cup, polymarket, kalshi" key_entities: "Caitlin Peluffo (person), Noah (person), Kevin Hart (person), Mia Hamm (person), Trump (person), Polymarket (organization), Kalshi (organization), Paradigm (organization), Netflix (organization), The Tonight Show (organization), The Late Show (organization), Comedy Central (organization), OpenAI (organization), NBA Finals (event), World Cup (event), Funny AF (event), The Goal Cup (event), New York (location), Manhattan (location), SoHo (location), North America (location), prediction-markets (concept), corporate-espionage (concept), perpetual-futures (technology)" classification: "transcript" content_hash: "sha256:68f5468828776b97a74c83f45bd8346e9fc792c5a6ba2e0394cda88e7fc44519" acp_version: "0.2" token_counts_approximate: 1803 visibility: public agent_accessible: true status: "final" --- # Spies, Soccer and a Market Built on One Man's Temper: Caitlin Peluffo Joins The Spread Sheet ![](https://ucarecdn.com/7a3bdcd1-22e1-45a8-bc1c-70e2523933cc/) Prediction markets never close, and neither does New York. This week the show had the perfect guest for a city running on no sleep and pure Knicks adrenaline: Caitlin Peluffo. If you don't know her yet, you've probably seen her somewhere. She's done The Tonight Show, The Late Show and Comedy Central, and she made the final four of Kevin Hart's Funny AF on Netflix. She's also a New Yorker in the middle of a historic Knicks run in the NBA Finals, which means she came in with opinions and a pulse rate to match. Over about 25 minutes, Noah and Caitlin worked through six markets: a corporate espionage story that sounds like a heist movie, the World Cup, the Finals MVP race, a viral legal saga, Trump's monthly insult board and the never-ending guessing game over what OpenAI does next. Here's everything they covered, in the order they covered it. ## Cold Open: Is Kalshi spying on Polymarket? Before a single contract got priced, the episode opened on the feud the whole prediction market world was talking about. In early June, the New York Post reported that Polymarket believes its biggest rival, Kalshi, may be spying on it. According to that reporting, Polymarket has kept an internal file logging roughly a dozen moments where Kalshi seemed to launch something suspiciously similar right before Polymarket could. The headline example: Polymarket spent months planning a free grocery pop-up in Manhattan for February 12, and Kalshi ran its own free-grocery promotion about nine days earlier. Then in April, roughly an hour before Polymarket was set to announce its perpetual futures product, a news report surfaced saying Kalshi was building the same thing. It gets more cinematic from there. Paradigm, a venture firm that backs Kalshi, has offices directly across the street from Polymarket's SoHo headquarters, and Polymarket reportedly tinted its windows this spring over concerns that people could see employees' screens. Kalshi and Paradigm have both brushed the accusations off as delusional, and it's worth being clear that the claims come from one side and none of it has been proven. The stakes explain the paranoia. Kalshi passed Polymarket in April with $5.42B in taker volume to Polymarket's $1.99B, according to Dune. When two companies are racing for the same customers, every launch date matters, and apparently so does every window. For a show built on prediction markets, it's the perfect opener: the companies that let you bet on everything are now accusing each other of peeking at the answers. ## Get Sporty: Which continent takes home the World Cup? The World Cup gets underway across North America this month, and traders have already made up their minds about how it ends. Europe sits around 71 cents and South America at 23. That leaves everyone else, the host continent included, fighting over single digits. Think about how strange that is. Forty-eight teams. Three host countries. Hundreds of millions of people hyped about the biggest tournament on earth being played on home soil. And the money still expects the trophy to board a flight back across the Atlantic. That's the kind of gap between vibes and odds this show lives for. Noah and Caitlin dug into whether the home-continent discount is real, or whether traders are simply betting on a century of history and calling it analysis. For once, the guest actually showed up qualified. Caitlin played soccer in college and recently suited up for Mia Hamm's team in The Goal Cup, so this wasn't a comedian bluffing her way through a sports segment. The CONCACAF underdog case got a real, fair hearing. The market, unbothered as ever, didn't budge. ## Get Sporty: NBA Finals MVP and the NYC vibes With a New Yorker in the guest chair during a Knicks Finals run, this segment was never going to be neutral. It's Spurs vs. Knicks, and the MVP market is secretly two bets stacked on top of each other: who wins the series, and who takes home the trophy if they do. Victor Wembanyama has been the frontrunner, trading above 60 percent. Jalen Brunson is the obvious answer if New York pulls it off. But the angle Noah and Caitlin kept coming back to is the one that makes this market more interesting than it looks. Even if the Spurs win, the award doesn't automatically go to Wemby. That space between a team's championship odds and its star's MVP odds is exactly where the value hides, and where a lot of traders get lazy. It's also a good reminder of what makes prediction markets fun to watch during a big series. Every game moves two numbers at once, and the city's mood moves right along with them. ## Make It Pop: Will Clavicular be sentenced to prison? The internet's favorite courtroom saga finally has a price on it. Close to $65K has been traded on whether Braden Eric Peters, better known online as Clavicular, actually ends up sentenced, and "Yes" is sitting around 16 cents. This is a market where the fine print does all the heavy lifting. Civil suits, investigations and public accusations don't count. A dropped charge, a plea without judgment or a dismissal all resolve "No." To pay out, it takes a conviction and an actual sentence. At 16 percent, traders are clearly saying the online chatter is running way out ahead of the real court case. That's the bigger point Noah and Caitlin landed on: prediction markets might be the only place where internet drama gets an honest price. Twitter thinks he's finished. The market says 16 cents. Only one of those opinions has money behind it. ## Power Index: Who will Trump publicly insult next? If you want the most dependable recurring market in the prediction economy, this is it. Roughly $710K in volume, a fresh lineup of names every month, and a resolution process that basically comes down to refreshing Truth Social. Jimmy Kimmel leads June's board at close to 59 percent. Past editions have paid out on Tucker Carlson, Candace Owens, Megyn Kelly and Barack Obama. Look at that list for a second and the pattern jumps out: this market doesn't care about party lines. It only cares about who happens to be within range that week. It might be the purest version of what The Spread Sheet is about. The underlying asset is one man's temper, and the entire trading strategy is to wait a week. ## Power Index: What will OpenAI launch in 2026? The episode closed on a market that asks traders to forecast the unforecastable: what does tech's most aggressive product shop put out next? The options run wide. Hardware, a browser, an agent, a social feed, something you wear, something you regret buying. Noah and Caitlin ran through the categories one by one, and it quickly turned into something bigger than a product bet. It became a gut check on how much of your life you'd be willing to hand over to a company that's still figuring out what it wants to be. The jokes basically write themselves. The resolution criteria absolutely do not, which is exactly why this one is so hard to call. *Catch the full episode on YouTube. Opening Bell drops every Monday, and Closing Bell wraps up the week on Friday.* --- https://noahgardenswartz.com/ https://www.caitlinpeluffo.com/