--- title: "The Closing Bell - The Spread Sheet" url: https://stacklist.com/card/250a2e8b-9b8d-4a6c-b3ec-c7e28b080873 published: 2026-10-14T15:37:51.295Z stack: https://stacklist.com/stack/ad0175a0-f555-4e0e-9b53-a9271a7f3ebb summary: "The Chicago White Sox reach the ALDS as historic underdogs after three consecutive 100-loss seasons, buoyed by Pope Leo XIV's handwritten blessing and Japanese import Munetaka Murakami's viral postgame celebrations. The article analyzes their matchup against favored Cleveland and broader World Series odds, questioning whether Chicago represents sports' best feel-good story or the board's most overpriced underdog." tags: "baseball, mlb, playoffs, white-sox, sports-betting, papal-blessing, murakami" key_entities: "Pope Leo XIV (person), Munetaka Murakami (person), Jerry Reinsdorf (person), Will Venable (person), Chicago White Sox (organization), Cleveland Guardians (organization), Houston Astros (organization), Los Angeles Dodgers (organization), Milwaukee Brewers (organization), Chicago (location), Cleveland (location), Japan (location), Wild Card Series (event), ALDS (event), World Series 2026 (event), papal-blessing (concept)" classification: "analysis" content_hash: "sha256:72301986a61c7e1a87ff637a85b731820d6d5d789c58f6f059eab2e4d89bd7fe" acp_version: "0.2" token_counts_approximate: 1363 visibility: public agent_accessible: true status: "final" --- # The Closing Bell - The Spread Sheet ![](https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!1bfZ!,w_1456,c_limit,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2F9ee695f2-42e0-4a72-a07d-42374b8e7c44_1672x941.png) The Pope has picked a side. Pope Leo XIV, born in Chicago and a White Sox fan for life, wrote a handwritten letter to owner Jerry Reinsdorf ahead of the Wild Card Series, calling down "the Almighty's abundant blessings" on a franchise that dropped at least 101 games in three consecutive seasons, a stretch that included a modern-era record 121 losses in 2024. Chicago answered by sweeping the Astros in two. Asked what it was like to have the Vatican backing his club, manager Will Venable said it "means a lot." The Pope, asked whether he deserved some of the credit, kept it vague: "No comment." Somehow it's even funnier that the highest spiritual authority on the planet won't gloat over a .519 baseball team. Back in 2005, he sat in the stands for the World Series opener as just Father Bob and saw the White Sox go all the way. Twenty-one years later, he has the hat, a direct line upstairs, and evidently the right formula, because the letter has delivered once so far, and now Chicago gets Cleveland, a -156 favorite going into Saturday's Game 1. This weekend we learn how far a blessing can actually travel. Still, the most entertaining figure in pro sports right now doesn't wear vestments. That title belongs to Chicago's own Munetaka Murakami, the $34 million import from Japan who spent eight seasons as Nippon Professional Baseball's home run king and has used his first MLB October to deliver postgame interviews worthy of a museum wing. When the White Sox locked up a playoff spot in September, a reporter asked him to rate his feelings on a scale of 1 to 10. He took the microphone and yelled "No 10!" straight into it. After the Wild Card sweep, dripping in champagne, he was asked how many bottles he'd popped and shouted "100!" Then, when asked what it meant to celebrate alongside his teammates, Murakami stared down the camera and bellowed, at maximum volume, "I'm Japanese!" It had nothing to do with the question. It never has to. A player who usually speaks through an interpreter has discovered the one language that needs no interpreting at all, and it's unfiltered, full-strength joy. The Pope chose a team. Murakami is simply living the greatest month of his life on live television, night after night. On to the board. **TRADE 1: White Sox vs. Guardians, ALDS** Cleveland comes in favored at -156 on the moneyline and -1.5 on the run line, with Game 1 set for Saturday in Cleveland. The Guardians know this stage well, with 14 division titles in franchise history, the latest coming last season. The White Sox know it only in the sense that they officially made the field. But how they got here counts for something. Chicago is the first club in major league history to reach the postseason right after three straight 100-loss seasons, and it just took down a 95-win Astros team in back-to-back games to show the Wild Card run was no accident. Throw in the papal letter and Murakami's nightly postgame show, and you've got either the sport's best feel-good story or the board's most overpriced underdog, and quite possibly both. **TRADE 2: World Series Champion 2026** The Dodgers are sitting at roughly 30 to 31% on both Kalshi and Polymarket, a clear favorite chasing a third consecutive title, which no National League team has ever pulled off. Milwaukee follows at 16.5 to 17%, coming off a franchise-record 103 wins and still priced firmly as the second option rather than a co-favorite. That says plenty about how much the market still believes in a rotation led by Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tarik Skubal, Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow over a better regular-season record. The White Sox are at 2.3%, tied for the bottom spot among the twelve playoff teams. A letter from the Pope and a screaming rookie earned them a series win. The market isn't prepared to give either one credit for a parade. **TRADE 3: Patriots vs. Bills** It's Sunday at Highmark Stadium, 1 p.m. ET, and Buffalo can open up a three-game cushion in the AFC East by beating a division rival it has already knocked off three times running. Kalshi has the Bills at 73% on the moneyline as 6.5-point favorites. Buffalo is 3-0, putting up more than 400 yards a game, ranks second in the NFL in total EPA, and still has Josh Allen as the runaway MVP favorite, even with a knee issue that kept his coach answering questions all week. New England comes in at 1-2 behind Drake Maye, who has struggled with turnovers early and is trying to sidestep what beat writers are already labeling a trap game disguised as a rivalry game. Allen was limping after Buffalo's Week 3 victory over the Chargers, Joe Brady says he's "not concerned," and the line opened at Bills -7 before drifting to 6.5. A healthy Allen in this spot means the MVP race keeps sorting itself out in real time. A hobbled one means the favorite's first genuine scare of the season. That's the bell. The Pope squeezed one series out of a letter, Murakami is turning press conferences into performance art, and the Dodgers are old, beat up and still the team everyone's chasing. Enjoy the weekend. October baseball doesn't need any help, but it'll gladly take whatever it gets. --- More about the Spread Sheet below: https://stacklist.com/the-spreadsheet-show